A perfect storm of newbuild containership deliveries, weakening demand and a dearth of scrapping candidates is throwing the supply/demand balance hugely out of kilter.
Shipowner association Bimco said it expected a “slight improvement” in the balance next year, but nevertheless added that trade, freight rates and time-charter rates would remain weak.
In its third-quarter overview and outlook publication for the industry, Bimco has downgraded its global container volume growth for this year to an anaemic -0.5%, from +0.5%.
This is in contrast to its revised 2023 fleet growth forecast of 7.9%, as a result of record newbuild deliveries of 2.3m teu of tonnage.
And Bimco has reduced its ship recycling estimate for the year, to just 200,000 teu, as shipowner heads refused to be turned by demolition prices that are only a third of the current asset values of their older ships.
For example, Sea Consortium recently fixed the 17-year-old 1,712 teu Rijnborg on a five-month charter, with an option to extend, at a daily hire rate of $13,000. According to Vesselsvalue data, the handy container vessel has an asset value of $9m, but a scrap value of only $3m.
This toxic mix of soft demand and a chronic oversupply of tonnage has forced ocean carriers to slam on the brakes and blank a massive amount of capacity before, during and well beyond, the Chinese Golden Week holiday in the first week of October.
Analysis by Sea-Intelligence reveals that in the past two weeks, a further 29 Golden Week blank sailings have been announced on transpacific tradelanes, with 18 more voided between Asia-Europe.
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Since the beginning of this year, the China-Europe (Wuhan) freight train has made 696 trips, exceeding last year’s total of 155 trips. The number of arrivals and departures has increased significantly.
At present, the Wuhan freight train has expanded from three main categories of goods, including electronic components, display monitors and daily necessities, to 13 main categories of goods, including new energy vehicles, tea and epidemic prevention materials. The source of goods has gradually covered five pillar industries in Hubei Province, including information technology, automobile manufacturing, chemical and energy, general health and advanced agricultural products.
Starting from the city of Wuhan, 47 cross-border transport routes have been developed, covering 40 countries and 111 cities on the Eurasian continent, initially forming an international multimodal transport network linking Europe, Central Asia, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN countries.
The world’s largest container line, MSC, is joining in an alliance with tenth-ranked Zim across “multiple trades”, as both carriers prepare for life outside their cooperation with Maersk within the 2M Alliance.
The Israeli carrier said it had made “a new operational agreement with MSC, encompassing several trades”.
Zim explained: “The cooperation scope includes services connecting the Indian subcontinent with the east Mediterranean, the east Mediterranean with Northern Europe and services connecting East Asia with Oceania.”
It added that the agreements included vessel sharing, slot purchases and slot swap arrangements.
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