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A minor 3% drop this week in the Drewry World Container Index (WCI), continuing a trend which began last week.
Shanghai-US rates were the fastest to dip: Shanghai-LA from a peak of $7,512 in early July to $6,501 yesterday; and Shanghai-NY from $9,612 on 18 July, to $8,931.
This could be little more than a glitch in an otherwise inexorable rise in rates, akin to that seen in the WCI in Q1, which soon reversed.
Indeed, according to Linerlytica, the port of Shanghai recorded a spike in congestion at the end of July not seen since the beginning of the year, which rather implies there there could be more disruption to come.
Softness in the charter market is not to be regarded as an indicator, said Alphaliner, but rather a typical summer holiday slowdown with “no sign of an acute market weakness”.
Qatar, Egypt and the US are pushing for Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks to resume on 15 August, but there is not much reason to imagine this will amount to much. And if the war is not going anywhere, neither are the Houthis: over the past 24 hours, Greek-owned tanker Delta Blue came under a hellish sequence of attacks from RPGs, missiles, drones and later a drone boat, according to a UKMTO report.
“Combined with supply chain problems, geopolitical uncertainties, and a stronger-than-expected cargo demand, freight rates will remain strong for a while, holding up charter rates as well,” Alphaliner reported on Wednesday.
If the downward trend does continue, however, it will be a sign that efforts by US shippers to front-load volumes to avoid being thrown upon the mercies of peak season, have worked. This certainly seems to be the prevailing consensus at Xeneta.
Chief analyst Peter Sand said yesterday the continuing Red Sea crisis had “brought a major shift in the traditional seasonality of ocean supply chains, with concerned shippers rushing to import as many goods as they can, earlier in the year.”
Xeneta data shows that record cargo volumes, of 800,000 teu, were shipped from Asia to Europe in June, the most in a single month. China-US volumes, meanwhile, were the eighth-highest on record, at 1.36m teu, not seen since the pandemic.
The record number of containers shipped in June gives credence to Xeneta’s theory of a shifting peak season.
“Shippers assessed the impact of the Red Sea conflict on ocean supply chains and are not prepared to take the risk of repeating the chaos of the pandemic years,” said Mr Sand.
Shanghai container futures trades suggest that Asia-Europe freight rates could fall further in 2025, after appearing to have peaked now.
On 5 August, the index points of the EC2408 (August contract) closed at 5,627, while the EC2410 (October contract) closed at 3,585 points, losing 3% and 9%, respectively, from 29 July. The EC2504 (April 2025 contract) stood at 1,961 points, while the EC2506 (June 2025 contract) stood at 1,955 points, down 5% and 6%, respectively, from 29 July.
On 2 August, the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) showed that the Shanghai-North Europe rate slipped 2% from the previous week to US$4,907/TEU, although this was substantially higher than the US$947/TEU a year ago.
Linerlytica’s report today (6 August) stated that the near-term contracts led the decline for most of last week before the longer dated contracts became caught on the US recession fears.
Containerised Freight Index Futures began trading last August through the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, a subsidiary of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The paper trades are executed by shippers, forwarders and liner operators.
Trading volumes are shifting from EC2410 to the later contracts with EC2504 gaining the most market interest.
Linerlytica said: “Based on the EC2408 and EC2410 latest closing prices, the futures market is pricing in a 4.46% decline each week in the next three weeks to the end of August, to be followed by a 4.49% decline each week in the following nine weeks to the end of October. Rates are expected to continue to fall through 2025, with current EC2506 rates trading at a 68% discount to the SCFIS (Shanghai Containerised Freight Index based on Settled Rates). Sentiment has turned negative despite the rates holding up much better than the Asia-US West Coast and Asia-Mediterranean rates, with carriers’ rate quotations starting to drop in a further indication that rates have peaked.”
Linerlytica opined that while freight futures continue to weaken, carriers are still in a strong position as overall capacity to North Europe remains limited with the 13-week moving average still down 3.4% compared to last year despite recent new capacity additions.
Actual departures from Asia remain volatile with port congestion and weather-related delays causing significant capacity slippage.
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Осуществляем гpузoпeрeвoзку грузoв тягачами и тpалами.
Оперативно и безопасно доставим Ваш груз по указанному адресу. В нашем автопарке имеется множество техники для доставки грузов различной сложности по России. Предоставляем свои услуги для компаний, юридических, физических лиц и частных предпринимателей. Наши преимущества: наличие большого и современного грузового автопарка, что позволяет подбирать транспорт под любые грузы и осуществлять перевозку на любые расстояния; для каждой единицы спецтехники предоставляется опытный водитель со стажем управления не менее пяти лет; грамотное планирование маршрута и быстрое оформление всех необходимых документов, предоставление личного менеджера, помогающего отслеживать движение груза в реальном времени; индивидуальный подход к клиентам.
We carry out cargo transportation by trucks.
We will deliver your cargo promptly and safely to the specified address. Our fleet has a variety of equipment for the delivery of goods of various complexity in Russia. We provide our services to companies, legal entities, individuals and private entrepreneurs. Our advantages: the presence of a large and modern cargo fleet, which allows you to select transport for any cargo and carry out transportation over any distance; for each unit of special equipment, an experienced driver with at least five years of management experience is provided; competent route planning and quick preparation of all necessary documents, provision of a personal manager who helps track the movement of cargo in real time; individual approach to clients.
The latest port congestion data reveals that shippers are grappling with extensive dwell times as the Red Sea crisis continues to take its toll.
Today, Danish carrier Maersk warned customers it had to “implement recovery measures in the US to ensure schedule integrity” on its AMEX service that connects South Africa to the US.
Delays to this service had been caused by “adverse weather in South Africa and extended waiting time in Freeport”, it said. Freeport is on the US Gulf coast.
“With these contingencies, due to the Jones’ Act rule, we’ve had to tranship cargo out of Freeport, which has created a backlog of containers awaiting on-carriage to final destination,” explained Maersk.
The Jones Act is a federal statute that requires shipping between US ports to be done by ships constructed in the US, carry an American crew and are US-flagged.
“These on-carriers also have limited capacity, causing extended dwell time in Freeport. Along with this, there has been an influx of imports into Freeport via other services causing further congestion and backlog, which we are working tirelessly to clear,” added Maersk.
Meanwhile, supply chain visibility platform Beacon noted the top five congested ports globally as: Durban, with an average 8-day wait time over H124; Ningbo-Zhoushan, with an average 6.1 days; Vancouver, with 4.28 days; Los Angeles with 3.61 days; and Chittagong, with an average wait of 3.41 days.
“While previous analysis showed that most ports were managing well, the latest data shows major ports are starting to feel the pinch,” said Beacon.
According to its H1 24 congestion report, the ports with the largest wait time increase from Q1 are Charleston, Zhoushan, Jebel Ali, Manila and Chittagong.
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The government of Turkey is moving forward with its own carbon pricing scheme, comparable with the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), denying shipowners the opportunity to use its ports to avoid tariffs.
The ETS levies a 50% tax on emissions from vessels from outside Europe calling at EU ports – a vessel travelling from a port in Asia might have been able to make a tactical transhipment call in Turkey to dodge an ETS fee.
Ports within 300 nautical miles of EU waters, such as Tangier Med, are covered by a special ETS amendment, but the concern is shared for ports further away but still relatively close, such as Port Said, in Egypt.
Turkey’s Asyaport, was also thought to be a possibility for ETS dodgers, and has experienced a bump in transhipment traffic this year. Container throughput surged 50.9% year on year in Q1, to 545,000 teu, and at nearby Aliaga, it jumped 33%, to 501,800 teu, and at Izmir by 24%, to 572,800 teu. EU nearshoring and the Red Sea crisis have also contributed to this bump. But if it gains approval from President Erdoğan, the move by Turkey would close this loophole, bringing some 10m tonnes of annual CO2 emissions under regulation.
As an aspirant EU member, Turkey’s parliament aims to align its emissions regulations with the EU. And while the move would no doubt mitigate the economic gains made by ports in Turkey from shipowner tax-dodging, the country values its relationship with the EU. It’s one of its biggest trading partners, accounting for €96bn in exports, as well as becoming a key near-shoring location for EU firms.
“The emissions trading system is one of the most important tools in the fight against climate change,” said Alparslan Bayraktor, Turkey’s minister of energy and natural resources, recently.
In the first half of the year, King Abdul Aziz Port in Dammam, Saudi Arabia recorded a 37.4% increase in total container exports and imports, reaching 1,534,961 TEUs compared to 1,117,133 TEUs during the same period last year.
Additionally, the total number of transshipments rose by 87.87%, reaching 37,806 TEUs. The number of exported containers at the port increased by 39%, reaching 624,710 TEUs, while the number of imported containers grew by 34,7%, reaching 872,445 TEUs.
The total cargo throughput tonnage increased by 37%, reaching 15,565,138 tons compared to 11,356,471 tons during the same period in the previous year.
General cargo reached a total of 2,580,974 tons, marking a 49.5% increase from last year when it was 1,726,804 tons. Bulk solid cargo also saw an increase of 2.6%, reaching 5,986,089 tons.
Moreover, maritime activity rose by 20%, reaching 1,430 ships compared to 1,192 ships in 2023. The number of cars saw an increase of 110%, reaching 363,167 cars compared to 173,086 cars last year. Conversely, the number of passengers decreased by 89.1%, reaching 4,194 passengers.
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