How Shanghai’s lockdown is opening worldwide ripple effects
Since April 6th, container shipments out of China have decreased by 31%. The 14-day average import container dwell-time in Shanghai had increased by 144% to 8.3 days, while the export dwell-time had increased by 20% to six days.
The over-the-road traffic in Shanghai has also been severely impacted. The 14-day average of over-the-road and intermodal transport volume leaving Shanghai has decreased by 41% since March 12, while deliveries to Shanghai have decreased by 72%.
There has been no improvement at Shanghai Airport so far. Since March, capacity out of Shanghai has decreased by 40%, with load factors falling from 93 percent in March to 49 percent. The majority of export cargo diverted from Shanghai is being received at other significant airports, including Zhengzhou, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. Many airports have run out of cargo storage space, forcing them to hike storage fees or implement temporary cargo embargoes. Pallets are in short supply for loading export cargo onto flights.
In March, retail sales in China fell 3.5 percent year over year.
The first batch of companies from the automotive, semiconductor, consumer electronics, and pharmaceuticals industries went back to work on April 18. The list includes SAIC Motor Corp., Volkswagen, and Tesla's electric vehicle manufacturing. This could lead to a sharp rise in export freight.
While access to ports is severely constrained, and many shipments are delayed offshore on waiting vessels, industries have significant challenges in obtaining raw materials and components required to maintain production. There are an estimated 300 container ships and 500 bulk ships off the coast of China.
The longer China is kept out, the greater the impact on US supply chains will be. Despite recent backlog clearances, vessel wait times outside the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have begun to increase once more. At the twin ports, container dwell time has also been steadily increasing. Concerns about rising container dwell times at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have prompted US officials to call on railroads to speed up their efforts to remove backlogs.
Analysts fear that when the backlog of products reaches U.S. ports, it would rekindle gridlock similar to last year when around 100 containerships became stranded in the ocean off the coastlines of Los Angeles and Long Beach.
The same ripple effect could become in Europe, Intra-Asia, and other destinations ex-China. The magnitude of that effect will depend on the duration of the lockdown in China.
Supply chain professionals are already looking for alternatives to China, and this tendency will continue. It won't happen overnight, and it won't happen in every business, but it's coming, and the recent lockdowns will just speed the process.
