China-to-Europe railfreight rates soaring as operators develop Red Sea alternatives

China-Europe rail freight volumes are continuing 2023’s upward trajectory, recording an 11% year on year bounce in the first six months of this year, with some 1.23m teu moved.

Data from China State Railway Group, published on government websites, shows more than 11,400 trains operated in the first half of 2024; with the most recent monthly figures suggesting little sign that this positive momentum is dwindling.

Indeed, July was the third consecutive month in which more than 1,700 trains made the journey between China and Europe, with 1,776 transporting some 185,000 teu.

Growth in Chinese rail freight volumes is partly attributable to the disruption in the Red Sea, with shippers eager to find routes around the chaos, but the government has also been rapidly developing rail services in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

With traditional China-Europe services through Russia hitting the buffers, Chinese operators have turned to Russia’s southern neighbours, with the number of routings through the likes of Kazakhstan growing.

And these efforts have borne fruit, with China Railway’s CR-Urumqi division having noted an 8.2% year-on-year bump in journeys made, hitting 7,746 in H1, with the operator stating it was “deepening cooperation” with Kazakh rail services. That “deepening” will include efforts to expand, optimise and reconstruct ports in both countries to better facilitate train transfers.

Average rates now being offered by Chinese forwarders on export services have surpassed $10,000 per teu, with some quotes at more than $12,000.